Back in November, Three HundredEight . com published this chart illustrating what he called "the house effect" Note that the chart does not measure accuracy compared to actual election results nor does Éric claim his methodology is immune from its own 'house effects':
"The numbers are the amount of percentage points a particular pollster favours or disfavours that particular party compared to other pollsters over a similar period of time.
This does not necessarily equate to a deliberate bias, but instead is more reflective of the polling methods used - the "house effects".OK, so bearing all that in mind ... Toronto Star : NDP moves into tie with Liberals: Poll
and are polling second place behind the Bloc in Quebec.
That would be Angus Reid, but if their poll is born out even to a lesser extent by other pollsters - and depending on the kind of skewed media coverage it gets : holy shit, TorStar! - it's certainly going to throw a fuck into the perennial "Vote Liberal so the Cons don't get in" meme, isn't it?
Which, btw, is a silly meme anyhow. We don't vote federally, we vote locally. If you're going to attempt to vote strategically, vote for the party most likely to beat the Cons in your own riding. If you're absolutely sure the second party back has no hope of beating them, vote your heart.
Update : Pundits' Guide : Why the Conservatives Love the “Strategic” Voting Sites
Dr. Dawg : A vote for the Liberals is ...