Friday, January 02, 2015

Poll : 23% of us are Con loonies

                                                                        updated below

Ottawa Citizen : Some say PM could justifiably shut down Parliament in crisis: survey
"A small but growing minority of Canadians says the prime minister would be justified in closing down Parliament and the Supreme Court in the face of “very difficult times,” according to a survey
What a fabulously leading survey question! Who wants to know this?
It found 23 per cent of respondents said the prime minister would be justified in shutting down Parliament when the country is facing a crisis or “very difficult times,” and 17 per cent would accept dissolving the Supreme Court for the same reason. 
Keith Neuman, executive director of Environics Institute, said he couldn’t explain the findings. "
Here's a wee bit of a clue, Keith. That 23% who are happy to shitcan Parliament and the Supremes under "very difficult times"?  It's not near a quarter of Canadians - it's just the 349 Con voters out of the 1517 Canadians you interviewed .
24% self-identified as "right wing" this year in response to your question on page 29 for the Americas Barometer survey : "According to the meaning that the terms 'left' and 'right' have for you, and thinking of your own political leanings, where would you place yourself on this scale?" 

This, as it happens, is about the same proportion of eligible Canadian voters that voted Con in the last election after Harper had already shut down Parliament twice. "Difficult times" is apparently code for not wanting to answer difficult questions in the House.

The article also makes mention that this 23% of people happy to shitcan Parliament and Supremes has been "inching up" compared to the 2010 and 2012 surveys. Given that less than half of the 1500 surveyed in 2010 and 2012 were asked this question, I'm not sure how it's possible to determine that percentage is "inching up", but yes, indeedy in 2010, 83 respondents thought it would be justifiable to close Parliament while 70 thought dissolving the Supreme Court would also be just fine. 

I must say the 2010 survey seemed a lot more fun -- particularly their inclusion of a number of leading questions about whether a military coup would be justified in Canada if there was "lots of corruption" - 264 said yes, or "lots of crime" - 226 said yes. The stats :
Coup justified - lots of corruption
264 - A military take-over of the state would be justified 
474 - A military take-over of the state would not be justified
4 - Don't know        1 - Skipped              757 - Not Asked
Coup justified - lots of crime
226 - A military take-over of the state would be justified 
513 - A military take-over of the state would not be justified 
4 - Don't know            0 - Skipped            757 - Not Asked
Really? More than a third of those you asked thought a military coup would be justified in Canada?

Exactly who needed to have this kind of info about Canada in 2010? Why were over half "Not Asked"?

Another set of questions from both 2010 and 2014 inquired whether people who disagree with our form of government should be allowed on television or to vote or to run for public office. And what survey on governance would be complete without those 85 Canadians who answered affirmative in 2010 to the statement : "We need a strong leader who does not have to be elected" ?

I don't blog polls anymore because they're pretty much just noninfotainment when they aren't outright push polls - but the Citizen/Global has eked a half dozen stories out of this one survey in the last week, including one with the entirely misleading headline : "Majority of Canadians worried about potential voter fraud, study finds". 
As the 50+ commenters below it point out, it's not non-existent voter fraud we're worried about - it's election fraud for the third time in a row. 

Note : For the 2014 survey, in addition to the 24% righties, 15% of respondents self-identified as "left" and 61% as "middle" in Canada. This was the lowest percentage of self-identifying lefties of the 27 "Americas" countries surveyed, minus the USA where the question was not even asked. The gender split in Canada was 50/50 with approximately 60% of respondents between the ages of 30 and 60.

h/t CC

Sunday update : Dr. Dawg takes issue with my scepticism re the Americas Barometer survey and the signs of fascism inherent in some of its findings. I left a comment there which I'll expand on a bit here. 

It isn't that I think that Canada is immune to fascism - certainly history has shown that if the public sphere is set up to only reward bastards, eventually many of us will fall in line and become bastards to each other - and it does seem the neoliberal corporate experiment we have all been living under these past few decades has grown increasingly tired of our noisome plaints about rights and freedoms.

Rather, my scepticism re the survey is based on its questions having originally been designed for the US's southern neighbours - hence its name : Latin American Public Opinion Project - and that its principal funding comes from USAID, recently featured in the news for running covert disinformation campaigns in neighbouring countries, presumably on behalf of US interests.

The Canadian affiliate and sponsor of the Canadian portion of the survey, the Institute on Governance, is "an independent, not-for-profit public interest institution with a mission to advance better governance in the public interest through exploring, developing and promoting the principles, standards and practices which underlie good governance in the public sphere."

Ok ... except the board is chaired by the Deputy Minister of Industry Canada whose IoG bio touts his oversight of the dismantling of the Wheat board, while IOG VP of Public Governance did the same under Deputy Minister of Transport Canada for the Navigable Waters Act ... so yes, I'm thinking their mission of "good governance in the public sphere" might have rather more to do with privatization and gutting enviro legislation.

Also I'm sceptical as to why Canada has been included for the last four surveys in what was originally a USAID project aimed principally at Latin America and why a PostMedia paper has now run six separate stories touting the results of this year's survey without mentioning that.


Anonymous said...

Nice little fascism trial balloon there aided and abetted by our complicit media who declined to look into it as you have.
btw Who thought up the actual questions - the mysterious "Institute on Governance" or Environics Institute?

the salamander said...

.. Analogies regarding criminal Election Fraud needed
Here's a sample for 'Pollsters' to try out

Across Canada, Trust Funds & Savings accounts at 240 bank branches of THE BANK are robbed on the same day, via electronic theft using directories, passwords & access codes shared within Head Office of THE BANK in Ottawa as well as to the branches. Thousand and thousands lose all their savings and Trust Funds

After THE BANK spokespersons & lawyers immediately bluster that the robberies did not happen 'Baseless Smears' says one, over and over and over again.. they grudgingly describe the alleged event as isolated to just one branch.. and that all the other banks often allege they have been robbed.. and that people who lose all their money often exaggerate.

Banking agencies and the 'Authorities' slowly show some interest. After a year, THE BANK reluctantly states it may allegedly involve more than one branch in Guelph Ontario but if it even happened, it must have been the action of a lone perpetrator - perhaps the bank volunteer who's name they have already leaked to newspapers and TV media. Most all the bank staff from that branch have left the country or soon arrange 'immunity'

The funds are NEVER RECOVERED.. and there is ZERO REFUND for THE BANK thousands and thousands of clients. After several years of investigation the closure rate is left at 1 out of the 240 criminal Fraud cases. The remaining 239 'cold cases' are declared unsolvable by The Banking Authorities & THE BANK cites the conviction of a single person as a great victory for Crime & Punishment & THE BANK. New banking secrecy laws are passed to make this so.

Now my question for erudite and non partisan Pollsters is ..

Are you, or do you know anyone 'Crazy' enough
to keep their money in a branch of THE BANK ?

West End Bob said...

"Difficult times" is apparently code for not wanting to answer difficult questions in the House.

Exactly, M'Lady . . . .

Anonymous said...

So according to this bullshit survey, if you look around at the three people standing closest to you right now, one of them already supports Harper dismantling parliament and the court for some as yet unspecified reason in the future.
What a crock!

Alison said...

Anon@7:56 : According to the Latin American Public Opinion Project at Vanderbilt University, home of the 2014 Americas Barometer project :
"The Canadian survey is an adapted version of the core version developed by LAPOP, with appropriate customization of terminology and the inclusion of additional questions of particular relevance to the Canadian context.

The survey was conducted in English and French, by Elemental Data Collection Inc. using an established online panel, with a representative sample of 1,541 Canadians (aged 18 and over) between June 21 and July 14, 2014. The sample was weighted by region, age and gender to match the country’s population."

I've added an update to the post on my skepticism re the project's dodgy USAID backing and their Canadian affiliates.

Salamander : That's so very good. Can I post it later today? If you want to make any changes to it first, leave them here and I'll add them.

Bob : There were questions in the survey not covered in the media that confirm this :

"32. It is necessary for the progress of this country that our prime ministers limit the voice and vote of opposition parties."

On a scale of 1 to 7 where 7 is strongly agree and 1 is strongly disagree, 39% of self-identifying righties agreed to 5,6, or 7


"32c Those who disagree with the majority represent a threat to the country."

On a scale of 1 to 7 where 7 is strongly agree and 1 is strongly disagree, 32% of self-identifying righties agreed to 5, 6, or 7.

Anon@8:58 : Yes, well, see update.

the salamander said...

.. Please feel free ! Keep up your fine work !
If you see value in such analogies in future
feel free to adapt or improve.. and use !

mogs moglio said...

UN [excuse my language] fucking believable how is this possible in a democracy?

Somebody lost their marbles an it ain't me.

Harper/MacKay must do jail time is this what they are trying to avoid?

mogs moglio said...

By purchasing a military coup?

Well no one said it happened yet but they are suggesting it may.

Um then if it does there is a very strong possibility of civil war yikes.

Anonymous said...

The Con deputy minister of Industry Canada chaired the board that sponsored the survey that found nearly a quarter of Canadians support Harper shutting down Parliament. Do I have that right?

Alison said...

Anon@10:14 : Yes

mogs moglio said...

Um Ya John Roby:


Boris said...

I'm not entirely worried about this panning out. The implications of actually following through with a full-on shutdown would be massive locally and globally. The federal government in Canada would lost legitmacy in the eyes of enough people to cause massive disruption.

I'm more worried about the idea of parliament/democratic processes being kept running as artifice to distract from a government that operates as if parliament was suspended. We're falling for that one.

Boris said...

Also, ok, fine, have dictator, but Harper? As far as dictators go, the man is banal and utterly without grandiosity. Most other states that suffer that fate end up with uniforms and parades, sunglasses, expensive suits, and creepy moustaches. Our contender is grey cement cinderblock. It's embarrasing that 25 to 39 per cent of us are dumb enough to fall for such a void of charima and personality.

Alison said...

I'm more worried about the idea of parliament/democratic processes being kept running as artifice to distract from a government that operates as if parliament was suspended. We're falling for that one.

We're soaking in it now.

Anonymous said...

"I'm not entirely worried about this panning out"
The "thinking" people of the 1930's Germany probably thought the same thing.
Even to send this to print should raise eyebrows and scare the shit out of Canadians. The publisher of this should be put in jail, water boarded and be rectally fed some brains.

Hugh said...

From Dec 2011:

"For a while now, there’s been a dirty-trick rumour in circulation: that organized callers have been phoning Liberal MP Irwin Cotler’s constituents, leaving the false impression he is leaving politics and they would need a new MP soon.

Eventually, Government House Leader Peter Van Loan admitted that this was being done on an organized basis by the Conservatives. A sad, cynical enough moment in Canadian politics."

Alison said...

Hugh : And here, for anyone who may have missed it at the time, is Nick Kouvalis of Campaign Research explaining how he was hired by the Cons to do it.

Anon@7:23 : Well you have a whole chain of people of good repute starting with Vanderbilt University through Environics and down to the Ottawa Citizen who have endorsed this survey as credible and that I would say is some cause for concern in itself.
It's like that old line : We know what the public are thinking because we've just told them what they're thinking.

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