Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Canada Votes 2015 - FPtP vs PropRep

2011 vs 2015
In 2011, Conservatives won 53.9% of the seats with 39.6% of the popular vote.
In 2015, Liberals won 54.4% of the seats with 39.5% of the popular vote.
In 2011, voter turnout was 61%.   In 2015, voter turnout was 68.5%.

900,000 voters unrepresented :

93.88 % of Green Party voters couldn’t elect anyone
76.78%  of Bloc voters couldn’t elect anyone
74.5% of NDP voters couldn’t elect anyone
50.98 % of Conservative voters couldn’t elect anyone
33.49% of Liberal voters couldn’t elect anyone



West End Bob said...

"Pretty good with the Lego" is right, Handsomemanthing ! ! ! !

Scotty on denman said...

Let's not get too one-sided about electoral reform. There are many kinds of systems, including our current SMP and pro-rep. They all have their pros and cons. Most pro-rep proselytizing is completely biased.

So what if a bunch of former communist countries adopted pro-rep. Most of their citizens have never previously experienced democracy before, and probably wouldn't know a liberal one if it hit them on the head. Ex-cadres---who selected pro-rep on their citizens' behalf ---were likely attracted to the weak governments pro-rep provides, all the better to keep the law and regulation out of their continuing corruption. To be fair, SMP is used by hundreds of millions of people in the world's biggest and richest nations. So what?---exactly.

Does it not seem suspicious that uber-neo-rightist Gordo was so horny to implement STV he held two referenda to try ram it through? Thank goodness they both failed because citizens plainly didn't understand the system in question. Anyways, since when was Gordo interested in empowering citizens over his corporate cronies? SMP, on the other hand, yields most often strong majorities that can stand up to profiteers---if they want.

I hope JT initiates a vigorous and open conversation on electoral reform (BTW, he didn't commit to any particular system like many pro-reppers say). Alls most people know about pro-rep comes from proselytizing propaganda. We need to understand the cons as well as the pros.

Sub-Boreal said...

I agree with SoD on this. Electoral reform enthusiasts have always oversold the benefits of most potential replacements for FPTP. And as you point out, Gordo's backing should have been the reddest of red flags.

Some more investigation of actual experiences elsewhere should be required. For example, I recall reading that the PR system adopted in New Zealand was heavily supported by those who wanted to prevent a repeat the of the neoliberal alien abduction that their country endured in the mid-80s. But ever since, none of the successor governments seem to have seriously challenged the new orthodoxies. Lesson? Technical fixes based on tinkering with electoral mechanisms can't be a short-cut for genuine battles over ideas.

Expect Trudeau to set up a committee that guarantees a quiet death for electoral reform, probably by learning from the BC and Ontaro Liberal experiences: propose something wacky and complex and/or give it the most lukewarm of endorsements.

double nickel said...

He's said in the recent past that he prefers a ranked ballot.

Kev said...

If we get anything out of this Liberal government it will be as Double Nickel said, Ranked ballots.

Parliament has already studied then issue and recommended MMPR, if Trudeau was in favour of PR he could use that study but he isn't so he won't.

My best guess is whichever way this goes we will likely have a referendum during the next general election so this probably won't be our last with FPTP

Alison said...

Scotty : BC voters rejected the STV, not PR, due in part to the campaign against it in local media and the G&M, and also to party heavies realizing they could no longer eke out majority govs from a minority of votes.

Ten months ago on Dec 3 2014, the federal NDP put forward the following motion in the HoC:
"That, in the opinion of the House: (a) the next federal election should be the last conducted under the current first-past-the-post electoral system which has repeatedly delivered a majority of seats to parties supported by a minority of voters, or under any other winner-take-all electoral system; and (b) a form of mixed-member proportional representation would be the best electoral system for Canada."

Trudeau voted against it.

e.a.f. said...

I'm not so sure about a proportional rep. system. I like knowing the area I live in, gets a rep. from their area, and first past the post works for me.

If there were to be proportional rep. then perhaps, it could be added to the current system. Or we go to a run off system, where if a candidate does not win 50% of the vote in their area, the candidates with the least votes is dropped off and the top 2 run against each other.

I'm still more comfortable with the first past the post system. Now if we got to elect our senators, .................

Unknown said...

There has to be a better way think deep think within how do we personally make decisions? All different so voting has become the average persons elixir like snake oil it accomplishes little to nothing for the price we pay. If there was fewer of us it would be like a tribe and we would make decisions together leaders would be as useless as figure heads on a warship :>

Unknown said...

By the way Alison glad your back missed you :> Cheers Mogs :)

Alison said...

Hi Mogs - nice to see you again. "If there were fewer of us ..." or if we organized more effectively on a local level.

Scotty, SubBoreal : I've been spamming this set of vids for years I know but

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