Thursday, May 05, 2011

Canada Votes 2011 - Margin of Victory

Updated Feb 23, 2012 - Steve's majority holds by 14 12 seats, or  5184 votes


Below are the 12 margins of victory for the Cons in the 2011 Election
There's been some recent interest in this post due to the Con robocall election fraud / vote suppression story so I've updated the post to include the final corrected vote tallies long since adjusted by Elections Canada since I first posted these figures three days after the 2011 election. 
New version directly below, with the corrected figures in the original post blue.
Data source : Elections Canada -Official Voting Results of the 41st General Election, Table 12 
I've included the Line # from the EC Tables so you can verify the numbers for yourself.
Corrected Con Margin of Victory : 5184 votes
EC Line # / District Name/ Candidate/Votes Obtained/ % of Votes Obtained /
Majority votes & Percentage


1)Line 855 - Nipissing-Timiskaming/ Jay Aspin CPC :15495 votes / 36.7% of vote /
 majority of 18 votes or 0%

2)Line 677 - Etobicoke Centre/ Ted Opitz CPC : 21644 votes / 41.2% of vote /
 majority of 26 votes or 0%

3)Line 16 - Labrador/ Peter Penashue CPC : 4256 votes / 39.8 % of vote /
 majority of 79 votes or .7%

4)Line 1576 - Yukon / Ryan Leef CPC : 5422 votes/ 33.8% of vote /
majority of 132 votes or .8%

5)Line 1127- Elmwood-Transcona / Lawrence Toet CPC :15298 votes / 46.4% of vote /
majority of 300 votes or .9%

6)Line 1215 - Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar/ Kelly Block Con: 14652 votes / 48.7% of vote /
majority of 538 votes or 1.8%

7)Line 593 - Bramalea-Gore-Malton / Bal Gosal CPC: 19907 votes / 34.4% of vote /
majority of 539 votes or .9%

8)Line 647 - Don Valley West/ John Carmichael CPC : 22962 votes / 42.9% of vote /
majority of  611 votes or 1.1%

9)Line 811 - Mississauga East-Cooksville/ Wladyslaw Lizon CPC:  18796 votes / 40% of vote/
 majority of 676 votes or 1.4%

10)Line 1170 - Winnipeg South Centre/ Joyce Bateman CPC : 15506 votes / 38.8% of vote /
majority of 722 votes or 1.8%

11)Line 1192 -Palliser  Ray Boughen CPC : 15850 votes / 47% of vote /
majority of 766 votes or 2.3%

12)Line 354 - Lotbini�re-Chutes-de-la-Chaudi/ Jacques Gourde CPC : 22460 votes / 39.9% of vote /
majority of 777 votes or 1.4%

~ ~ ~ End of Feb 23, 2012 corrected post ~ ~ ~ 


Steve's majority holds by just 14 12 seats

Below Matt Peters and Ryan Boldt look at 14 12 of the most closely contested Conservative ridings where the margin of victory was less than 800 votes- and in one case in Ontario - just 14 18 votes.
In that riding the combined opposition vote was 11,357 11,299 and the Cons took it by just 14 18 votes, while 27,887 registered voters didn't vote at all.

Nipissing-Timiskaming (Ontario) Line 855
Cons                 Liberals        Margin of Victory         NDP/Green Combined
15,495              15,477                      18                               11,299
15,507              15,493                      14                               11,357


Labrador (Newfoundland & Labrador) Line 16
Cons                Liberals         Margin of Victory         NDP/Green Combined
4,256                 4,177                        79                               2,259
4,234                 4,003                       231                              2,235


Bramalea-Gore-Malton (Ontario) Line 593
Cons                 NDP            Margin of Victory         Lib/Green Combined
19,907              19,368                    539                              18,150
19,907              19,369                    538                              18,149


Etobicoke Centre (Ontario) Line 677
Cons                Liberals          Margin of Victory         NDP/Green Combined
21,644              21,618                                                         9,112
21,661              21,635                     26                                9,185


Saskatoon Rosetown Biggar (Saskatchewan) Line 1215
Cons                 NDP             Margin of Victory        Lib/Green Combined

14,652              14,114                     538                                1,323


Elmwood-Transcona (Manitoba) Line 1127
Cons                 NDP             Margin of Victory        Lib/Green Combined
15,298            14,998                       300                                 2,677
15,280            14,996                       284                                 2,678


Montmagny-L'islet-Kamouraska-Riveire-du-Loup (Quebec)
Cons                 NDP              Margin of Victory        Lib/Green/Bloc Combined
17,220            17,110                       110                                14,861


Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere (Quebec) Line 354
Cons                 NDP              Margin of Victory        Lib/Green/Bloc Combined

22,460            21,683                        777                                12,183


Don Valley West (Ontario) Line 647
Cons              Liberals            Margin of Victory         NDP/Green Combined
22,962            22,351                       611                                  7,983
22,992            22,353                       639                                  7,983


Mississauga East-Cooksville (Ontario) Line 811
Cons              Liberals             Margin of Victory        NDP/Green Combined
18,796            18,120                       676                                  9,868   
18,782            18,121                       661                                  9,989


Winnipeg South Centre (Manitoba) Line1170
Cons              Liberals             Margin of Victory        NDP/Green Combined
15,506           14,784                        722                                  9,328 
15,468           14,772                        696                                  9,332


Yukon Line - Line 1576
Cons              Liberals             Margin of Victory        NDP/Green Combined

5,422              5,290                         132                                  5,345


Desenthe-Missinippi-Churchill River (Saskatchewan)
Cons              NDP                 Margin of Victory         Lib/Green Combined
10,509            9,715                         794                                  1,704 
10,504            9,715                         789                                  1,706


Palliser (Saskatchewan) Line 1192
Cons              NDP                 Margin of Victory         Lib/Green Combined

15,850         15,084                          766                                  2,892


Total numbers for the 14 12 ridings
Cons             2nd place            Margin of Victory          Rest of the left*
217,196        210,348                      6,848                             105,188
219,939        213,738                      6,201                             103,873

*Rest of left only includes NDP, Lib, Bloc or Green parties. Other parties not counted.


And just to add insult to injury, five of those ridings boast some of the lowest voter turnout in the country :

                                                          Margin of Victory           Voter Turnout   
   
Labrador -                                                       231 79 votes                   52.1%

Bramalea-Gore-Malton (Ont) -                  538 539 votes                  54.3%

Elmwood-Transcona (Manitoba) -            284 300 votes                    56.5%

Mississauga East-Cooksville (Ontario) -    661 676 votes                    56.5%

Desenthe-Miss-Churchill (Sask) -              789 794 votes                    52.2%

.
Original source data from interactive tables at SFU.
Updated source data from Elections Canada
.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

There are posts cropping up on the net. Many Canadians feel, Harper did not win the election. The Hill Times wrote an article, on how Harper cheated.

I don't even understand. Why Harper was able to run for P.M. He is contempt of the House. He had a felon working for him. I certainly don't have a lick of respect, nor, trust for him.

He gave me the willies, the first time I ever laid eyes on him. I actually felt a revulsion, I was shocked, as I had no idea why. Now i am not so shocked.

Oemissions said...

i noticed that Stevie got 75% of the votes in Calgary SW

Offroad Artist said...

It looks like the three Sask ridings were dicey - all the rest would have been comfortable wins for ABC with any degree of strategic voting.

Beijing York said...

This makes the so-called CON victory even more painful.

I can say that I certainly took my traditional NDP vote to Anita Neville in Winnipeg South Central.

Anonymous said...

Harper didn't "win" by much (6201 votes is the sum of the closest 14 margins of victory in those ridings) and he cheated.

So he is owed no deference at all. I do not intend to obey his orders or laws myself and if the other 60% ignore him and undermine him abroad (write letters to foreign press and leaders often) he can be forced to quit. It happened to Mike Harris, Richard Nixon and other such crookes.

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